Can Jake OKane actually win Survivor 45? His potential path to victory, explained

With the highly-anticipated finale of Survivor 45 right around the corner, fans of the franchise have just one burning question — who will take home the title of “Sole Survivor” and the million-dollar cash prize?

While there is no way of knowing until it airs on our television screens, it is clear that the original Reba members — Dee Valladares, Austin Li Coon, and Julie Alley — have been dominating the game, but one original Belo member has a trick up his sleeve.

Finding a Hidden Immunity Idol in episode 12, Jake O’Kane now has the ability to make some massive moves, but is it too late in the game for the jury to deem the 26-year-old as deserving of the win, or will the three original Reba members steamroll their way to the end instead?

Survivor superfans discussed whether or not there is a way for Jake O’Kane to win Survivor 45, and we would not count him out just yet. Keep scrolling to see for yourself…

@ParadoxTheRay kicked off the conversation via Reddit, explaining that “If he is able to use that idol to eliminate Dee and then proceed to take out Julie in the final 4 by fire-making, he is left with Katurah and Austin in his final three,” a scenario in which he could come out as victorious.

The Reddit user continued, “Katurah hasn’t done anything in the game and Austin has made two huge blunders to the point where he might be even worse than Katurah. I do think Jake beats those two, and it won’t be easy, but he definitely (somehow) still has a shot at victory, and with how these New Era seasons have gone, the biggest threats always leave right before final three.”

While this scenario sounds like the perfect way for Jake to secure the title of “Sole Survivor” and the million-dollar cash prize, this will not be an easy mission to accomplish, given that he appears to be arguably the third strongest competitor in the game (at best).

Dee Valladares has been dominating the game since day one — and she has Austin Li Coon and Julie Alley wrapped around her finger — so sending her home is priority number one. She is basically a shoo-in for the win!

Aside from Dee, with a Hidden Immunity Idol play that sent Emily Flippen home with a single vote, Julie has proven time and time again that she is the second biggest threat in the game, so snuffing her torch as well would be imperative to Jake’s journey on the beloved competition series.

As @ParadoxTheRay mentioned, sitting next to Austin and Katurah is seemingly the only instance in which Jake could be crowned the champion of Survivor 45. Katurah has not made any moves that have deemed the 35-year-old as deserving of the title of “Sole Survivor” and the million-dollar cash prize, and Austin has made two major mistakes that could cost him the win altogether — foiling the plan to blindside Julie Alley in episode 11, as well as failing to properly use his Hidden Immunity Idol in order to save Drew Basile, his closest ally in the game, in episode 12.

Naturally, dozens of Survivor superfans were in agreement with this theory, with the Reddit post garnering a whopping 120 responses and 711 upvotes. How impressive is that?

@AdventHeart: “I was thinking this! I’m new to Survivor, but if Dee and Julie go, then I think that he has an excellent chance to take it all!”

@BroliasBoesersson: “I agree. If he can idol out one of Dee or Julie at five and beat the other in fire, I think he can make a good case for himself at final tribal council over Austin and Katurah. Dee or Julie will beat him if they’re sitting next to him.”

@lucasd11: “I’m actually sort of cheering for him to win at this point, because out of those remaining, Katurah has sort of skated by off the back of the power alliance. The rest of those left are/were in the power alliance. There is something to be said for them controlling the game as long as they did and not turning on each other etc. But Jake has basically had to claw, tooth, and nail to get to this point and would make a much more fascinating case for the jury if he got to final three… He’d need to definitely eliminate Dee and then either win the final Immunity Challenge or win fire to make final three to have a strong enough case.”

While he would be a rather weak winner — one that is on a similar playing field as Maryanne Oketch of Survivor 42 and Mike Gabler of Survivor 43 — does Jake still have a shot at victory? To find out for yourself, catch the highly-anticipated finale of Survivor 45 tomorrow (December 20) at 8pm ET/PT on CBS, or the following day on Paramount Plus.

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